The attached video is a compelling visual representation of some of the trends that we discussed in our Next Fifty Years piece and how they are impacting the way the world communicates. It was presented by Richard Sanders, President of Sony BMG International on May 4, 2008 to 150 of the company's top executives gathered in Rome for Sony BMG's annual Global Management Meeting.

In our Next Fifty Years booklet, which GolinHarris published a couple of years ago, we made a few predictions. One was the US would have an African-American President in the near future. Another was authenticity would become the coin of the realm. These two ideas intersected in a very interesting way during the recent election.

Every day the world’s political and business leaders perform in front of voters, employees, stockholders and the general public. Every word is weighed, every deed dissected -- in print, on air, online and in person. In terms of depth of scrutiny and length of exposure, no stage matches that of the American presidential election campaign, which has become a referendum on reality. After listening endlessly to what the candidates have to say, then being subjected to 24/7 interpretations by a chorus of pundits, the average American is faced with discerning what is true and what is not. Or more importantly, who is real and who isn’t.

This is the realm of authenticity and it comes in all shapes and sizes. In the election of 2008, many of the candidates were authentic -- at least to certain segments of the population. Hillary Clinton was a hard-working woman who understood the plight of the blue collar worker. John McCain was a war hero and a maverick. Mike Huckabee was a guitar-playing, down-home guy who believed in old time religion. Sarah Palin was a small town hockey mom who loved to hunt. Barack Obama was a change agent from a diverse multicultural background.

But no matter it’s form, authenticity now decides. It is the fulcrum upon which trust is given, fortunes are made and elections are won. But as our election demonstrated, it isn’t enough to simply be authentic. It is how that authenticity is applied. Clinton didn’t find her true voice until the primary was half over. Palin seemed “just like me” until the media discovered that she paid $150,000 for her wardrobe. McCain began his campaign on the Straight Talk Express but veered off course along the way. Obama never stopped talking about change.

In the final analysis, was the winner more real than the others? Or did he just convey his message so consistently and effectively that the voters grew comfortable with who he was?

Since we first suggested that authenticity is “permeating our culture and changing our business,” thick academic studies have been written on the importance of being authentic. That is no secret. But what remain unanswered are the logical real world questions – Where do I get it? And how should I communicate it?

Applying authenticity. That is the key to victory in our ever-changing world. Where transparency dominates. Where spin evaporates. Where you can get results -- if you get real.

Last Tuesday, I was honored to give a presentation on digital word of mouth, at the Russian interactive marketing conference, Be Interactive. The event was organized by the PRP Group and 360d-- sister companies to the GolinHarris' affiliate Comunica. Distinguished speakers including Interactive Advertising Bureau's President & CEO Randall Rothenberg, Agency.com's founder and CEO Chan Suh, Avenue A/Razorfish's Europe President Darin Brown, AKQA's Director of Strategy Craig Walmsley,
entrepreneur and MS Sequel's Digital Business Services Creator Bradley Starr presented their views and best practices in engaging audiences online.

Besides hearing about the makings of successful campaigns from the West, we also listened to an in-depth presentation by Karl Johannesson, founder and CEO of J'son Partners, a management consultancy with offices in Russia and Central Asia. His speech was an eye opener to the possibilities in the Russian Internet market and its growth potential.

Johannesson projects that the Russian Internet communications market will be $122 billion by 2012. Here is a look at the factors contributing to this area's increasing growth:

- Russia comes third (29 million people) in the number of Internet users in Europe, following the UK and Germany.
- There are 280 million Russian speakers around the world; 142 million of them are in Russia.
- 10.5 million households will be on broadband by the end of 2008. Yet competition is leading to massive infrastructure development. In 5 years, hundreds of Russian cities will come online with FTTB (fiber to the building), providing citizens with faster Internet access than current technologies.
- The average Russian Internet user is spending 1-2 hours/day on social networking sites (mostly accessing from work.)
- Thirty percent of the Russian Internet audience is playing online games, engaging for 30-40 minutes at a time.

Johannesson points to growth in home Internet use, advergaming and mobile Internet communications for the near future. Within the next few years, the boom of Russian Internet users on high-speed access will draw many more marketers to the area. Odnoklassniki (Russian version of classmates) and vkontakte (Russian version of facebook) will be followed by new online communication platforms that resonate with local preferences, created by local talent.

Considering the millions of bloggers, social networkers, forum participants and their audiences, you might guess that the social media universe includes a broad mix of demographic groups. Indeed, there are plenty of teens, young and mature adults to poll about their social media activities. But we also need to pay close attention to the impact of social media on consumer behavior. The market is big enough. Soon, many companies looking to this space as a marketing platform will look for results beyond building brand equity. The latest data from Manhattan Research, a pharmaceutical and healthcare market research firm, suggests that brands who can engage patients and caregivers online may have the opportunity to strengthen their reputation and earn new customers.

Manhattan Research conducts ongoing studies focusing on ePharma consumers--adults who have researched pharmaceutical information online for themselves or for someone else in the past 12 months. According to their 7th ePharma Consumer® survey, nearly half (47 percent) of ePharma consumers report that user-generated content has at least some impact on their health or prescription treatment decisions.

The percentage of consumers who indicate being influenced by user-generated content increases among younger ePharma segments. For instance, 64 percent of 18-34 year olds indicate that blogs, chat rooms, message boards and social networks have at least some impact on their health-related decisions.

There seems to be a craving for different perspectives and hearing others' experiences among caregivers. Among those who indicate that user-generated content has a strong impact on their healthcare decisions, 65 percent are parents with children in the household and 50 percent are people caring for someone with a chronic condition.

These findings point to significant advantages healthcare providers can gain by listening to relevant consumer chatter and becoming trusted resources to young adults and caregivers who are seeking answers online. Those healthcare/pharmaceutical companies that provide factual information to conversation leaders and answer patients' questions, will be mentioned in patients' conversations with physicians, caregivers and others suffering from similar conditions.

Yesterday was a mix of feelings in China. I am sure you have been reading the news, reading about how China's biggest star limped off the track, stepping on the hearts of over a billion people on the way to the locker room. What happened is too interesting to not blog about. Not because a star athlete decided to call it quits in the name of a legitimate injury, but because of the meaning and implication of it all. Some people forget that people make mistakes and aren't God. This is especially true for Liu Xiang, China's numero uno Olympic athlete. Bar none. This 25 year-old hurdler has been elevated to a status of super-super star, thrust into the hearts and hopes of most Chinese, thanks to a combination of brand sponsorship and national pride.

It is difficult for a westerner to understand the importance of the Olympics to the Chinese. Someone asked me, 'how do you justify spending 100 million on an opening ceremony while the majority of rural poor live off less than 2 dollars a day?' to which I wanted to answer, 'well, the poor bloke in the countryside is most likely not thinking about this, but catching the China-US basketball game as we speak.' Although probably not the answer sought, I believe this is true. The Olympics are more than an expensive international event for China. They are a symbol that the country has arrived. It is a chance for the people to show what they are made of. Many of us forget that China has been open to the West through diplomatic relations and economic reforms for only 30 years. Chinese a generation above me will recall Nixon's historic visit, while my generation wears stilletos, listens to hip hop and speaks at least two languages.

Back to Liu Xiang and what this all means for communications. Imagine with me for a moment, taking the spirit and hopes of nearly 1 billion people (there must a few million Chinese that don't have T.V.) and condensing them into a liquid and anointing one man - the hope of a nation. And, then, that man walks off the stage. And, remember, there is another 23 year-old man from another nation that is basking in the victory of 8 consecutive gold medals.

Immediately after Liu Xiang left the match, his coach and another held a press conference, filled with tears, explaining the runner was suffering injuries, but hoped it wouldn't affect today's run. Interestingly, Liu Xiang was nowhere to be found. How did the Chinese public feel about listening to the two coaches' explanation? Some comments I heard include 'such a coward. He should study Michael Phelps.' 'This press conference was planned. look at how quickly he left the track, and how quickly they set up the conference.' 'Why didn't he run? Even if he fell over the hurdles in pain, who cares? That is honorable!' Also, 'His fame is built from sponsorship. Too hungry for fame and money. You see? Not fit for the real challenge.'

These were just from people I know. Comments online were even fiercer, ranging from sarcastic to fiercely bitter. Yet, running searches in official online Chinese media revealed nothing negative. Mostly sympathy. Foreign media, for the most part, was also sympathetic, taking an observor's stance, recognizing he had an injury. Yet, the disappointment of many people - both who I knew and heard on the street and in online forums - was undeniable. This led me to two interesting reflections regarding current communications in China. Whenever I want strong opinion, I search one of the several online forums or blogs. Online forums are a huge way of getting to how people really feel about a timely issue, especially younger people.

Secondly, some PR principles hold true no matter which country or culture you are in. For example, one of the things we maintain is the need to show a public face immediately when a crisis strikes. This was certainly true in this case. One thread of opinion was 'why didn't he show his face? I don't want to hear some statement by his coach.!' Indeed, where was Liu Xiang? Was he too ashamed? I certainly understand. If I were him with all that pressure, I may have taken all that sponsorship money and moved to the Bahamas.

How people regard Liu Xiang's departure in the long run may turn positive. When asked if she would give him another chance, one person mentioned, 'It depends on how he responds. What he will say.' Another person today says, 'the Chinese people understand. It is disappointing, but what can you do when you are injured?'

Today's China is complex. It's not quite what it seems. Opinion is masked, often hidden. But, it is there. These people are brimming over with emotions and opinions. Just give them the right opportunity and it comes out, raw and unpolished. And, refreshing. This is something the Olympics is also showing China's leadership. You can put on the world's greatest show. But, you can't expect everyone to be well-behaved.

Last week AdAge called to interview me about a story that ran in the NYTimes about local television newscasts promoting products on-air. The example they used focused on anchors at KVVU, the Fox affiliate in Las Vegas, who had glasses of McDonald’s new iced coffee featured prominently on their desks during their morning show. According to the article, this is part of a broader promotion arranged by McDonald’s ad agency with a number of local stations.

As expected the article pointed out that there is a growing concern from consumer groups and journalists about this type of pay-for-play endorsement on television, especially during the news. And that skepticism may be justified given the church and state relationship that has traditionally existed between editorial and advertising divisions within all print and broadcast outlets.

Despite that concern, I think we are going to see a lot more of this kind of thing in the future -- simply for economic reasons. Traditional media are losing traditional advertising revenue and they are being forced to find new ways to monetize their content. Movies have done it for years and so have the sitcoms and reality programs. The apprentice basically sold every episode to a major corporation looking for visibility with their once large audience. Advertisers spent 2.9 billion in 2007 to place their products in TV shows and movies. Up 33.7% from 2006. This year that figure is projected to hit $3.6 billion. So why not the news?

The other factor driving this trend is advertising agencies. Because traditional advertising is not having the same impact it once did, clients are demanding new ways to get their messages out. In response, advertising agencies are looking at all kinds of opportunities to place products in editorial content, which has long been the purview of PR. For decades, PR people have worked with news programs to get them to sample and talk about their new products and interview the people who make and use them. This is nothing new. What is new is the idea that the news media are being paid to do it.

As long as media and ad agencies need revenue (which I think is forever), we are going to see all kinds of paid product placement on the air. As PR people, we will continue to publicize our client’s products in every creative way we can. It is up to the consumer to understand why Stephen Colbert eats Doritos all the time and why Simon Cowell drinks Coke.

Despite the economic downturn, the exponential growth of social network giants such as MySpace, Facebook and Classmates Online is strengthening our belief that the social media phenomenon will continue to bear new business ideas, social contracts and connections. Recent ComScore data (May 2008) was showing year over year growth of 34 percent for Facebook and 23 percent for Classmates.com.

Their success is inspiring companies to start their own social networks. They range from branded private communities that give product-related feedback to public groups that grow organically, branching into discussions driven by consumers. Whether for large commercial players or brand communities, social networks’ paths to success share the same fundamental characteristics:

o Ease of access
o Ease of connectivity
o Ease of sharing

Social network users are already bombarded with information and many have multiple profiles to manage. Therefore, an emerging social network needs to have low barriers to entry and a significant benefit to lure new members.

The vanity in spreading personal stories, the voyeuristic appeal of sifting through other people’s posts and the satisfaction from connecting with old time friends represent the first phase of these Web 2.0 platforms. Next generation social networks will need to help transform virtual experiences into reality.

For instance, members will join a community to help fundraising efforts, give and receive recommendations for product purchases, organize for offline meetings/demonstrations or train for a new role in a company or community. Their membership and time spent online will have tangible benefits.

There are some social networks with goal-driven membership structures. Social Vibe gets its members to match brands with non-profits, care2 enables its users to sign online petitions and take green actions and SheSpeaks brings consumers’ opinions about new products to companies. Yet in general, social networkers spend their time on entertainment and knowledge sharing. Going forward, marketers’ challenge will be to build and sustain networks around social or commercial goals.

* Gretchen Krieg contributed to this post with her research and analysis.

All of us in the communications field lost a great role model today with the passing of Tim Russert, Washington Bureau Chief for NBC News and moderator of the popular Sunday morning "Meet the Press" news program.

Tonight's news coverage -- on NBC and competing networks alike -- paid tribute to Russert's unique abilities as a communicator. What made him so effective and trusted by those who watched and admired him?

Authenticity.

It's something we talk about frequently in public relations as the "secret sauce", but few capture it as well as Russert did in his 58 years.

He often spoke of the importance of communicating simply, directly and in an unassuming way so that all could easily understand the complex political issues of the day. Do you remember Tim's famous low-tech dry erase board in the Bush vs. Gore 2000 presidential election? Florida. Florida. Florida. (This board now resides in the Smithsonian.)

And when Russert proclaimed Obama as the presumptive Democratic nominee for this election, America listened.

His passion for politics was contagious. My wife often asked why I was so drawn to a political news program on Sunday mornings. Russert made news approachable, interesting, and human.

Pundits on both sides of the political aisle have come out in droves tonight to talk about his fair dealings, objectivity, and passion for the topics he covered. And above all else, they talked about his authenticity as a communicator and a man.

What a legacy. Communicators for generations to come will surely study Russert in the hopes to emulate him and his success as one of the most effective communicators of our day.

In ten years, no one will read a hard copy newspaper. Broadcast television and radio will have been replaced by their streaming siblings. Search services and the context around them are more important that the content themselves. That is the very near future envisioned by Microsoft CEO Steve Balmer where all media is delivered via an internet connection.

We all know that the world of media has been turned upside down. But to paraphrase Balmer, "you ain't seen nothing yet." With an increasingly short cycle of news and social media influence it seems that the trends digitization and fragmentation will begin to spin even faster, like a figure skater drawing their arms in tighter for more rapid revolution.

While Balmer's musings do not represent a fundamental shift in the forward thinking represented on this blog, his mental time line shows a future that is surprising close and will require even faster evolutions and revolutions than we have seen in the past ten years.

When I arrived to China, I was amazed by the high utilization of instant messengers. People not only use it as a quick means of communication, but it also serves as an excellent information dissemination tool (not to say, as a good back-up when email systems breakdown). The most popular IM are MSN and QQ, and Yahoo is seldom used locally due to low penetration rates.

MSN is widely used in our office and I can understand why. The tool is highly customizable, and has certain amenities that allow personalization. Users can write a personal note next to their ID, and their friends would see it. I see sometimes good wishing notes, or just plain announcements such as "My new cell phone number is XXX."

To set aside the benefits and threats of MSN usage in an office environment, recent incidents that affected China locally and globally has made MSN a tool to voice users view points. Just let me pick two examples: the Olympic torch relay and the recent earthquake in Sichuan.

During the Olympic torch relay, many demonstrations were held overseas to voice their "anti-China" sentiments, and those graphic videos of demonstrators trying to disrupt the relay were beemed back to China. This caused nationwide uproar, and together with CNN's remarks and news that Carrefour's owner supported the Dalai Lama, really brought up the nationalism sense among Chinese. In a few days after all these incidents, a trend got started, where a "red heart" symbol could be installed along your MSN ID through a few simple clicks. The heart symbolized "Love and Proud of China" and very soon, I could see my MSN friends all with hearts in front of their ID. It felt like an unspoken solidarity, a digital and quick way for people to show their point of views. Even though it was noise-less, but the visual impact is there!!

Just two days ago, with the Sichuan earthquake affecting all of us, another trend got started. This time, it had money attached. MSN partnered with Toyota, and to show our compassion and support to those who were affected by the earthquake, for every "rainbow" that was installed in front of the MSN ID, Toyota would donate a RMB 0.1 (1cent US). And within a couple of hours, over 800,000 people have signed up and join the parade of rainbows. To me, this is not only a remarkable effort by a Japanese company trying to show solidarity (remember, China and Japan have historical conflicts that are still not fully resolved), but also how an "old" industry tries to embrace new technology, and achieving good will and CSR along the way.